International Immigration

Question A: Lower levels of international immigration will lead to higher prices for services in Ohio.

Question B: Fewer international immigrants in Ohio will lead to a net loss in tax revenue.

Question C: A reduction in international immigration will result in fewer small businesses being started in Ohio.

Question A: Lower levels of international immigration will lead to higher prices for services in Ohio.

Economist	Institution	Opinion	Confidence	Comment
Jonathan Andreas	Bluffton University	Strongly Agree	9	This is one of the clearest costs of restricting immigration. Of course there are also benefits for some people, but this is a definite cost.
David Brasington	University of Cincinnati	Uncertain	8	the lower supply of workers could increase the cost of goods, but the lower demand for goods should help lower the price of goods, so it might be a wash
Ron Cheung	Oberlin College	Agree	8
Kenneth Fah	Ohio Dominican University	Agree	9
Vinnie Gajjala	Tiffin Univeristy	Agree	9
Will Georgic	Ohio Wesleyan University	Uncertain	5	There are two competing forces that could cause prices for services to change in response to lower levels of international immigration to Ohio. The demand effect would suggest that prices could come down due to a decrease in consumption. On the other hand, a decrease in the supply of labor, especially in key industries, could lead to higher wages for some jobs which could lead to local wage-price spirals and higher prices. It is challenging to predict which effect would dominate without more information, but it is important to note that even if service prices decreased, this would be accompanied by an overall decrease in state-level GDP, which isn't a desirable outcome.
Bob Gitter	Ohio Wesleyan University	Strongly Agree	9	Although it depends on the service, the price of restaurant meals, domestic help, lawn care, and nanny care will rise.
Nancy Haskell	University of Dayton	Uncertain	5
Paul Holmes	Ashland University	Agree	8
Faria Huq	Lake Erie College	Agree	7
Christian Imboden	Bowling Green State University	Agree	6
Michael Jones	University of Cincinnati	Uncertain	7
Charles Kroncke	Mount Saint Joseph University	Strongly Agree	10
Bill LaFayette	Regionomics	Uncertain	5	There will be fewer service providers but the demand for services will also decline, so the result is ambiguous and is likely to vary among categories.
Trevon Logan	Ohio State University	Agree	8
Joseph Nowakowski	Muskingum University	Strongly Agree	9
Curtis Reynolds	Kent State University	Agree	8
Iryna Topolyan	University of Cincinnati	Strongly Agree	9
Ejindu Ume	Miami University	Agree	5
Kathryn Wilson	Kent State University	Agree	6
Rachel Wilson	College Board	Agree	9

Question B: Fewer international immigrants in Ohio will lead to a net loss in tax revenue.

Economist	Institution	Opinion	Confidence	Comment
Jonathan Andreas	Bluffton University	Strongly Agree	9	Again, this is a no-brainer. There will be fewer people working and smaller economy which can benefit some people, but not the tax revenues.
David Brasington	University of Cincinnati	Agree	7	yes, compared to more immigration, but it also depends on the types of immigrants (skilled vs. unskilled), to what extent they participate in the underground vs. taxed economy, to what extent they receive public assistance
Ron Cheung	Oberlin College	Strongly Agree	10
Kenneth Fah	Ohio Dominican University	Agree	9
Vinnie Gajjala	Tiffin Univeristy	Agree	9
Will Georgic	Ohio Wesleyan University	Strongly Agree	10	Not only would we lose taxpayers, but as overall economic activity would decrease, so too would tax bases. Relative to the tax revenue that could be collected without a decrease in international immigration, Ohio would unambiguously suffer a net loss in tax revenue.
Bob Gitter	Ohio Wesleyan University	Strongly Agree	9	Immigrants work and pay taxes. Undocumented workers sometimes pay into Social Security but don't receive benefits.
Nancy Haskell	University of Dayton	Agree	6
Paul Holmes	Ashland University	Strongly Agree	9
Faria Huq	Lake Erie College	Strongly Agree	8
Christian Imboden	Bowling Green State University	Strongly Agree	8	International immigrants generally contribute more in taxes (especially sales taxes compared to the value of government services that they use.
Michael Jones	University of Cincinnati	Agree	9	Why does this question only ask about one side of the accounting equation? What is the resulting change in government expenditures as a result of less immigration? If savings in government spending on immigration exceed tax revenue, then the result is a financial surplus to Ohio.
Charles Kroncke	Mount Saint Joseph University	Strongly Agree	10
Bill LaFayette	Regionomics	Strongly Agree	8	A study by Upwardly Global estimated that immigrants contributed $2.4 billion in state and local taxes to Ohio in 2022. This does not include the income and sales taxes generated throughout the economy as a result of their labor and household purchases.
Trevon Logan	Ohio State University	Agree	8
Joseph Nowakowski	Muskingum University	Strongly Agree	9
Curtis Reynolds	Kent State University	Agree	8
Iryna Topolyan	University of Cincinnati	Strongly Agree	10
Ejindu Ume	Miami University	Agree	5
Kathryn Wilson	Kent State University	Strongly Agree	10	The research is clear that immigrants pay significantly more in taxes than they receive in benefits (in part because they are not eligible for many benefits). Therefore, fewer international immigrants in Ohio will lead to a net loss in tax revenue.
Rachel Wilson	College Board	Strongly Agree	10

Question C: A reduction in international immigration will result in fewer small businesses being started in Ohio.

Economist	Institution	Opinion	Confidence	Comment
Jonathan Andreas	Bluffton University	Strongly Agree	9	Again, not only does less immigration reduce the size of the economy, which reduces small businesses, but immigrants have also been disproportionately involved with small businesses, both as entrepreneurs and as employees, relative to native born Americans. Of course, some kinds of immigration don't have this benefit, like family reunification that brings in grandparents, but even with that in the mix, historically most immigrants have always been working age. So, one reason immigration has always been an economic boost is that it reduces the demographic dependency ratio of the US and immigration policy could boost this effect by reducing family reunification migration and increasing immigration of high-skilled immigrants. That is what many countries like Canada and Australia have been doing.
David Brasington	University of Cincinnati	Agree	8	certainly for legal, skilled immigration; less illegal immigration could also lead to fewer small businesses being started, both above-board and underground economy businesses
Ron Cheung	Oberlin College	Strongly Agree	10
Kenneth Fah	Ohio Dominican University	Agree	9
Vinnie Gajjala	Tiffin Univeristy	Agree	9
Will Georgic	Ohio Wesleyan University	Strongly Agree	10	Simple math makes this all but inevitable
Bob Gitter	Ohio Wesleyan University	Agree	9	Starting a small business such as a housecleaning service or food truck is a tried and true way for immigrants to get started. They are also quite active in the tech sector.
Nancy Haskell	University of Dayton	Strongly Agree	9
Paul Holmes	Ashland University	Strongly Agree	10	Immigrants open and operate businesses at a much higher rate than native-born people
Faria Huq	Lake Erie College	Agree	8
Christian Imboden	Bowling Green State University	Agree	6
Michael Jones	University of Cincinnati	Strongly Agree	9	Immigration self-selects for hard-working, entrepreneurial-minded individuals. Someone who is willing to leave their home country and family to start a new life likely possesses a higher than average drive to succeed. Economists as a whole are generally supportive of allocating labor anywhere in the world to its most productive uses. However, articles that emphasize the tax contributions of illegal immigration are completely counterproductive. E.g. a recent Ohio Capital Journal article notes "Ohio<d5>s 120,000 undocumented immigrants spend about $2.6 billion in the state every year and pay about $740 million in taxes every year. And because they exist, all of this could be in trouble." The author wants to make the argument that society is supposed to overlook law-breaking activity because it potentially brings in more money to the State? Not only is this argument morally repugnant, it turns away common-sense Ohioans from supporting immigration. Even this survey treats all immigrants as a monolithic block. E.g. what skills do the immigrants possess? What assets are they bringing with them? Did the immigrant earn a degree in the United States? etc. Until we treat individuals as individuals, we will continue to see polarizing and divisive dialogue on the topic of immigration in Ohio.
Charles Kroncke	Mount Saint Joseph University	Strongly Agree	10	Ohio needs immigrants. They bolster our GSP and create jobs. We need highly educated scientists, skilled craftsmen, and service workers. Ohio should be welcoming to all people.
Bill LaFayette	Regionomics	Strongly Agree	9	Studies have found that immigrants are more likely to start and own businesses than their domestic counterparts. This may be because immigrants who uproot their lives and move to a different country are inherently more risk-tolerant. They may also be leveraging their unique insights into the needs of their community.
Trevon Logan	Ohio State University	Agree	8
Joseph Nowakowski	Muskingum University	Strongly Agree	9
Curtis Reynolds	Kent State University	Agree	4
Iryna Topolyan	University of Cincinnati	Strongly Agree	9
Ejindu Ume	Miami University	Uncertain	5
Kathryn Wilson	Kent State University	Strongly Agree	9	There is a lot of evidence that immigrants start and run small businesses at a higher rate. Given this, a reduction in immigration will be expected to result in fewer small businesses being started in Ohio.
Rachel Wilson	College Board	Strongly Agree	10