Medicaid Cuts

Question A: Reducing Medicaid spending in Ohio by $37 billion over the next ten years will have significant economic ramifications beyond loss of health insurance for current Medicaid recipients.

Question B: Reducing Medicaid spending in Ohio by $37 billion over the next ten years will cause a severe recession in the state.

Question A: Reducing Medicaid spending in Ohio by $37 billion over the next ten years will have significant economic ramifications beyond loss of health insurance for current Medicaid recipients.

Economist	Institution	Opinion	Confidence	Comment
Jonathan Andreas	Bluffton University	Agree	9	It will raise personal bankruptcies, increase the overload at emergency rooms, hurt hospital finances, and people will have worse health or die due to losing their healthcare. On the benefit side, it helps reduce the federal budget deficit to accommodate the other fiscal priorities of the Big Beautiful Bill.
David Brasington	University of Cincinnati	Uncertain	6
Kevin Egan	University of Toledo	Agree	8
Kenneth Fah	Ohio Dominican University	Agree	8
Bob Gitter	Ohio Wesleyan University	Agree	8	More sick time, potential job losses due to missed time at work, and potential closing of rural hospitals.
Nancy Haskell	University of Dayton	Strongly Agree	9
Paul Holmes	Ashland University	Strongly Agree	10
Faria Huq	Lake Erie College	Strongly Agree	9
Michael Jones	University of Cincinnati	Strongly Agree	7
Charles Kroncke	Mount Saint Joseph University	Agree	10	Denying health care may reduce the supply of labor. If people are unhealthy, they will not be able to work.
Bill LaFayette	Regionomics	Strongly Agree	10	People who lose their insurance will suffer more chronic illnesses which will negatively affect their own ability to work, as well as the ability to work of their caregivers. The need for nonprofit hospitals to take on more uncompensated care will weaken their finances and could cause some to close. This will have ripple effects through the local economy and the local workforce.
Trevon Logan	Ohio State University	Strongly Agree	9
Joe Nowakowski	Muskingum University	Strongly Agree	10	This will lead to increased morbidity and mortality. Furthermore workers will have an incentive to migrate to states, or countries, with an interest in maintaining the health of their workers.
Curtis Reynolds	Kent State University	Agree	8
Albert Sumell	Youngstown State University	Strongly Agree	10	It's been well documented that there are significant negative externalities associated with loss of health insurance, including economically
Iryna Topolyan	University of Cincinnati	Agree	10
Ejindu Ume	Miami University	Agree	7
Rachel Wilson	Wittenberg University	Strongly Agree	10	Rural hospitals may be forced to close, along with other medical offices, leading to widespread job losses in the healthcare sector. The resulting decline in income will ripple through the broader economy, reducing consumer spending and local economic activity. Additionally, a rise in the number of uninsured individuals may lead to a less healthy workforce, which could negatively impact productivity. Cuts to Medicaid may also reduce access to mental health services, potentially contributing to higher crime rates—another factor that can dampen economic growth.

Question B: Reducing Medicaid spending in Ohio by $37 billion over the next ten years will cause a severe recession in the state.

Economist	Institution	Opinion	Confidence	Comment
Jonathan Andreas	Bluffton University	Disagree	5	Yes the Medicaid cuts would recessionary if I take the question literally and ignore the context, but they are part of the Big Beautiful Bill which also includes massive inflationary tax cuts, so the net result is mainly redistribution from the sick to the rich and not austerity. In fact, the Big Bill is more inflationary than recessionary because it blows up the deficit. If there is a recession in the near future, it is more likely to be caused by trade disruption and other federal mismanagement (like higher deficits raising interest rates and cronyism or higher inflation) causing a collapse in business investment. Or we could have another financial crisis, but that is hard to predict!
David Brasington	University of Cincinnati	Strongly Disagree	10
Kevin Egan	University of Toledo	Disagree	8
Kenneth Fah	Ohio Dominican University	Uncertain	9
Bob Gitter	Ohio Wesleyan University	Disagree	7	This is less than $4 billion per year or under one half of one percent of Ohio's GDP. The effect will be negative but won't cause a severe recession.
Nancy Haskell	University of Dayton	Uncertain	5
Paul Holmes	Ashland University	Disagree	7
Faria Huq	Lake Erie College	Agree	6
Michael Jones	University of Cincinnati	Disagree	5
Charles Kroncke	Mount Saint Joseph University	Agree	9	Reducing medical spending takes money directly out of the medical sector and reduces the supply of potential workers.
Bill LaFayette	Regionomics	Disagree	8	It will certainly have negative economic ramifications but I think "severe recession" is too strong.
Trevon Logan	Ohio State University	Agree	5
Joe Nowakowski	Muskingum University	Agree	8
Curtis Reynolds	Kent State University	Disagree	5	I don't think that it is enough to cause a recession although it will be very bad for parts of the Ohio economy.
Albert Sumell	Youngstown State University	Disagree	10
Iryna Topolyan	University of Cincinnati	Agree	7	I am not certain about the severity of recession, but I am fairly confident that this cut will spur recession. The direct effect of reduced spending on medical services, amplified by the multiplier effect, will be observed in the short-run. Moreover, there will be economic loss due to sick days as a result of poorer health. Additionally, in the long-run there will be a negative effect of deteriorating human capital due to worse health outcomes.
Ejindu Ume	Miami University	Disagree	8
Rachel Wilson	Wittenberg University	Uncertain	10	The economy is too dynamic to make any prediction like that