Population Growth Trend

Question A: Employment opportunities are a major contributor to Ohio's current population growth trend.

Question B: Cost of living is a major contributor to Ohio's current population growth trend.

Question C: State-level decisions on social policy issues are a major contributor to Ohio’s current population growth trend.

Question A: Employment opportunities are a major contributor to Ohio's current population growth trend.

Economist	Institution	Opinion	Confidence	Comment
Jonathan Andreas	Bluffton University	Agree	4	Jobs are always a big factor in where people move.
David Brasington	University of Cincinnati	Agree	10	population depends on jobs and in-migration, so it's an important component
Ron Cheung	Oberlin College	Strongly Agree	10
Kevin Egan	University of Toledo	Disagree	5
kenneth Fah	Ohio Dominican University	Agree	9
Vinnie Gajjala	Tiffin Univeristy	Uncertain	8
Will Georgic	Ohio Wesleyan University	Agree	8	This is evident at the local level in towns throughout the state.
Nancy Haskell	University of Dayton	Agree	8
Faria Huq	Lake Erie College	Agree	6
Christian Imboden	Bowling Green State University	Agree	8
Michael Jones	University of Cincinnati	Agree	9
Charles Kroncke	Mount Saint Joseph University	Agree	9
Bill LaFayette	Regionomics	Strongly Agree	9	Employment opportunities here vs. elsewhere. Employment growth in Ohio has lagged the national average since 1953.
Trevon Logan	Ohio State University	Agree	8
Joe Nowakowski	Muskingum University	Uncertain	5
Curtis Reynolds	Kent State University	Agree	7	I am not sure how much this is reality (there are less opportunities) or perception (people think there are less opportunities) but either way there is movement out of Ohio driven partly by economic considerations.
Albert Sumell	Youngstown State University	Agree	8	Employment always plays an important role in any area's growth trend, but it's a chicken/egg story. Population growth also affects employment.
Iryna Topolyan	University of Cincinnati	Agree	7
Ejindu Ume	Miami University	Strongly Agree	7
Andy Welki	John Carroll University	Strongly Agree	9	Self interest drives individual choices. People follow economic opportunities.
Kathryn Wilson	Kent State University	Agree	7	Employment opportunities are a contributor on both sides of the ledger. Areas around Columbus that are seeing growth in population are also seeing job growth. Other areas of the state with less job growth are seeing a net migration out of people.
Rachel Wilson	College Board	Strongly Agree	10

Question B: Cost of living is a major contributor to Ohio's current population growth trend.

Economist	Institution	Opinion	Confidence	Comment
Jonathan Andreas	Bluffton University	Agree	4	Ohio is not nearly the worst state for cost of living, but in the south, heating costs less and housing doesn't need to be insulated as well and most importantly, many southern states like Arkansas make it easy to build more housing, so housing costs are more affordable.
David Brasington	University of Cincinnati	Disagree	9	Ohio's low cost of living is not responsible for a decline in population, but a decline in population could contribute to a low cost of living
Ron Cheung	Oberlin College	Agree	7
Kevin Egan	University of Toledo	Disagree	5
kenneth Fah	Ohio Dominican University	Agree	8
Vinnie Gajjala	Tiffin Univeristy	Agree	8
Will Georgic	Ohio Wesleyan University	Agree	8	While the Columbus area is projected to grow over the coming decades, it could grow even more if the cost of living were lower. Greater growth in Columbus could maintain or grow the state population despite population losses throughout the rest of the state. In fact, this is a version of what has happened over the past few decades. The Rosen-Roback model posits that populations reach a spatial equilibrium by moving in response to changes in wages, prices (particularly housing), and non-market amenities (typically environmental attributes or consumer amenities such as dining, entertainment, and transit). All else equal, lower wages, costlier rent, and worse amenities discourage regional population growth, but these factors can be impacted by each other, as well. As Columbus has seen greater population growth due to employment opportunities and higher wages, the cost of living has increased, with greater All-Transaction House Price appreciation since 2009 than in almost all of the largest metropolitan statistical areas in the Great Lakes region. For Columbus to grow enough to prevent Ohio from becoming a relatively smaller state, either local wages need to grow at an even faster rate, the quality of the non-market amenities must improve, and/or the cost of living needs to come down in real terms compared to other Great Lakes region cities.
Nancy Haskell	University of Dayton	Disagree	8
Faria Huq	Lake Erie College	Disagree	5
Christian Imboden	Bowling Green State University	Uncertain	5
Michael Jones	University of Cincinnati	Agree	7
Charles Kroncke	Mount Saint Joseph University	Disagree	7
Bill LaFayette	Regionomics	Disagree	8	Much less important than job opportunities. Jobs and productivity drive wages and cost of living, not the other way around.
Trevon Logan	Ohio State University	Agree	8
Joe Nowakowski	Muskingum University	Uncertain	5
Curtis Reynolds	Kent State University	Disagree	8	Cost of living is quite low in most parts of Ohio compared to many other areas of the country but that is partly driven by lack of pressure on the demand side due to declining population (note that places like Columbus which have been growing in the state have rising cost of living).
Albert Sumell	Youngstown State University	No Opinion	5	Cost of living matters, but this is more of a reverse causality -- population growth impacts cost of living.
Iryna Topolyan	University of Cincinnati	Disagree	9
Ejindu Ume	Miami University	Disagree	8
Andy Welki	John Carroll University	Agree	8
Kathryn Wilson	Kent State University	Disagree	9	Ohio has relatively low cost of living which is a reason cited for why people move to Ohio. Given that, it is not a good explanation for the net loss of population in the state.
Rachel Wilson	College Board	Uncertain	8

Question C: State-level decisions on social policy issues are a major contributor to Ohio’s current population growth trend.

Economist	Institution	Opinion	Confidence	Comment
Jonathan Andreas	Bluffton University	Uncertain	4	Policies are certainly important, but so are things like climate and natural amenities like mountains and wilderness which will pull people when policies are similarly good. Whereas it is easy to see how Texas and Florida have had better policies than Louisiana and Missisippi, since they share a similar climate and geography, it is harder to see whether or not there is any difference in success for Ohio versus peer states like Pennsylvania or Indiana and comparing Ohio with Florida is a bit like comparing apples and oranges. Since we can't change our natural endowment, we have to use policies to compete and there is always room for improvement.
David Brasington	University of Cincinnati	Disagree	8	not many people pick a place to live based on social policy. jobs, climate, geography, quality of life all matter more
Ron Cheung	Oberlin College	Agree	8
Kevin Egan	University of Toledo	Agree	5	I think "quality of life" is the most important predictor of state growth. In our modern service economy, I think it is truer that jobs follow where citizens prefer to live not the other way around. And where citizens prefer to live will end up being more expensive as demand for housing, etc. is higher. Since air conditioning became common warmer climate states are more popular so Ohio needs to offer quality schools, low crime, desired public spaces such as the new Toledo Riverwalk project, changing zoning laws to allow more dense construction where it is desired to keep housing more affordable, and so much more.
kenneth Fah	Ohio Dominican University	Uncertain	8
Vinnie Gajjala	Tiffin Univeristy	Agree	8
Will Georgic	Ohio Wesleyan University	Agree	8	If you think of social policy issues as non-market amenities, and if you think that recent state-level decisions have worsened the quality of these non-market amenities, then following a Rosen-Roback type model could support the belief that these decisions are contributing to the State's current population trend. If you believe that the marginal state resident (the potential Ohioan that may choose to work and live in Ohio or to do so in another state) is more sensitive to these social policy decisions than the average Ohioan, then you should be even more confident that these decisions are causing Ohio to become a relatively smaller state.
Nancy Haskell	University of Dayton	Uncertain	5
Faria Huq	Lake Erie College	Uncertain	5
Christian Imboden	Bowling Green State University	Agree	6
Michael Jones	University of Cincinnati	Disagree	7
Charles Kroncke	Mount Saint Joseph University	Uncertain	5
Bill LaFayette	Regionomics	Agree	7	Pulling from Richard Florida's work, tolerance is an important contributor to economic and population growth. But employment opportunities are still the key driver.
Trevon Logan	Ohio State University	Agree	8
Joe Nowakowski	Muskingum University	Agree	8
Curtis Reynolds	Kent State University	Uncertain	9	This may become more of an issue going forward. Obviously not everyone disagrees with such policies but younger people are less likely to agree and that is who we may be concerned about leaving the state. There are plenty of states without such policies they could move to. More importantly, there are plenty of states with similar policies that have better job opportunities and much better weather than we do. Basically, Ohio and Florida may both have similar social policies so people will choose the one with better weather.
Albert Sumell	Youngstown State University	Agree	9	It's hard to measure the impact, but there is no doubt state level social policy decisions have an impact on population growth
Iryna Topolyan	University of Cincinnati	Agree	10
Ejindu Ume	Miami University	Strongly Agree	9
Andy Welki	John Carroll University	Agree	8	Tax climate and state level decisions that affect the educational experience matter, including K-12.
Kathryn Wilson	Kent State University	Agree	6
Rachel Wilson	College Board	Agree	8