During the Covid-19 Pandemic, the U.S. federal government temporarily provided waivers for universal free school meals for students nationwide, meaning that all students could eat breakfast and lunch at school for free, regardless of household income. When those waivers ended in 2022, several states passed legislation to continue providing universal free school meals by supplementing federal school meal funding with state funding. Those states include California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Vermont. Ohio considered a bill to establish universal free school meals during the 2025 legislative session, but the bill did not pass.
The debate over universal free school meals is a rich topic for economic policy analysis, as it sits at the intersection of education, health, and social safety net policy. This topic is also part of a broader debate about the advantages and drawbacks of universal versus targeted social safety net programs. Proponents argue that universal free school meals improve student learning and health, reduce the stigma associated with receiving free meals, and reduce schools’ administrative costs. Meanwhile, opponents argue that it is parents’ responsibility to feed their children and that the government should not provide meals to children whose families can afford those meals themselves.
These debates caught our attention at Scioto Analysis as an excellent place to apply cost-benefit analysis. A cost-benefit analysis assesses the economic costs and benefits of a policy to determine whether it generates net economic gains for society. In a report published this week, I estimated the costs and benefits to Ohio residents if the State of Ohio were to provide universal free school meals. The economic costs to Ohio residents would be the direct cost of food and cafeteria staff, plus economic inefficiencies from higher taxes, known as the “marginal excess tax burden.” The economic benefits would be the value of free meals for students and wages for cafeteria staff (i.e., the flip side of the direct costs), reduced healthcare costs due to reduced obesity, time saved by families who would have otherwise prepared breakfast and lunch at home, and potentially increased lifetime earnings for students, as projected by improved test scores. There are also a variety of other benefits for Ohio residents that I discuss in the report, but do not monetize. I estimate that the total costs would be around $356 million and the total benefits would be around $876 million, resulting in net benefits of $520 million. As with any projection of the future in a complex social system, there is a high degree of uncertainty in these estimates. However, my sensitivity analyses suggest that even with a variety of different inputs and assumptions, universal free school meals would likely yield net positive economic benefits for Ohioans.
It may surprise many readers to learn that 62% of Ohio students in schools participating in the National School Lunch Program (nearly all public schools and many private schools) already have access to free school meals. Thus, the debate over universal free school meals in Ohio is about whether to expand access to the remaining 38% of students. Under the current system, students can access free meals through four different pathways. Using October 2024 data from the Ohio Department of Education and Workforce, I calculated the share of students covered by each pathway, expressed as a percentage of all Ohio students in schools participating in the National School Lunch Program:
18% of students are eligible for free meals through the traditional means-tested National School Lunch Program and School Breakfast Program. Families can apply for free meals if their income is below a threshold, and many families are automatically granted access to free meals based on their enrollment in other social safety net programs like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (“food stamps”) and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families.
3% of students are eligible for reduced-price meals through the traditional means-tested National School Lunch Program and School Breakfast Program based on household income, and they can receive those meals for free through a subsidy from the State of Ohio that was established by state law in 2023.
40% of students have access to free meals through their school’s enrollment in the Community Eligibility Provision, which provides federal funding for schools or districts to serve free meals to all students if a high percentage of the student population comes from low-income households. The Community Eligibility Provision became available nationwide in the 2014-2015 school year, and enrollment has expanded substantially over the years. Note that many, but not all, of these students would have had access to free meals under the traditional means-tested program if their school were not enrolled in the Community Eligibility Provision.
1% of students have access to free meals through their school’s enrollment in Provision 2. Provision 2 allows schools to claim meal reimbursements based on the percent of students who are eligible for free and reduced-price meals, and to provide free meals to all students rather than only to students who are eligible under means testing. Provision 2 is typically only financially viable if a high percentage of a school’s students are already eligible for free school meals. This is an older program that is less commonly used now that the Community Eligibility Provision is available. Again, many, but not all, of these students would have had access to free meals under the traditional means-tested program.
The figure below, which comes from my cost-benefit analysis, displays these percentages.
Percent of students with each school meal access pathway in Ohio, among students at schools that participate in the National School Lunch Program
Based on the available research about the health, educational, and economic benefits of universal free school meals for students of all incomes—even those who are already eligible for free meals through existing programs—I believe universal free school meals are a worthwhile investment for Ohio. However, I also recognize that this is a tough issue politically, as lawmakers are wary of increased spending, especially for a program that would provide free meals to children from middle- and high-income families.
If Ohio’s leaders want to expand access to free school meals in lower- and middle-income schools without providing universal free school meals in all schools, an intermediate policy option would be to provide state subsidies to help more schools and districts enroll in the Community Eligibility Provision. As described above, the Community Eligibility Provision allows schools or districts with a high percentage of low-income students to provide free meals to all students. Eligibility for the Community Eligibility Provision is based on a school’s or district’s “identified student percentage,” which means the percent of students who are automatically certified to receive free school meals due to participation in other social safety net programs. Schools or districts with an identified student percentage of at least 25% are eligible to participate. However, the federal government only provides enough funding to cover 1.6 times the identified student percentage, so schools or districts with an identified student percentage less than 62.5% are responsible for providing their own funding to cover free meals for some of their students. If the State of Ohio provided subsidies to schools and districts with identified student percentages between 25% and 62.5%, that would make it financially feasible for more schools to participate in the Community Eligibility Provision, thus allowing more schools to offer free meals to all students and increasing Ohio schools’ ability to leverage federal funding through the Community Eligibility Provision. The State of Ohio could also provide resources to help schools and districts with implementation of the Community Eligibility Provision.
Whether through universal free school meals or through subsidies to support increased enrollment in the Community Eligibility Provision, Ohio has an opportunity to make nutritious meals a reliable part of more children’s school days, thus supporting students’ learning today and strengthening Ohio’s economy tomorrow.
For more on school meals, see our blog posts on the Community Eligibility Provision, universal free school meals, the history of school meals, and school meals and student achievement.