This morning, Scioto Analysis published a cost-benefit analysis to assess the potential impacts if the State of Ohio implemented a universal free school meals program for one year. A universal free school meals program in Ohio would use state funding to supplement existing federal school meals programs. We estimate that providing the option of free school breakfasts and lunches to all students in Ohio for one year would generate $356 million in social costs and $876 million in social benefits, resulting in net social benefits of $520 million. Specifically, we estimate that the program would require $300 million in direct costs and $56 million in tax inefficiencies known as the “marginal excess tax burden.” We estimate that the benefits would be:
$300 million: direct benefits to families, cafeteria staff, and food suppliers
$5 million: economic value of time saved by parents who would have made breakfast at home but switched to school breakfast
$15 million: economic value of time saved by parents who would have packed lunches but switched to school lunch
$4 million: reduced healthcare costs due to reduced obesity
$552 million: students’ increased lifetime earnings as predicted by improved test scores, discounted to present-day value
There are several sources of uncertainty in our estimates, so we explore alternative inputs to our model through sensitivity analyses. The sensitivity analyses suggest that although the exact magnitude of benefits is highly uncertain, net benefits of universal free school meals in Ohio are likely to be positive.
For more on school meals, see our blog posts on universal free school meals, the Community Eligibility Provision, the history of school meals, and school meals and student achievement.