Ohio Economists Say Payments to Firms Will Speed Recovery from Recession

In a survey published by Scioto Analysis this morning, 23 of 32 Ohio economists said state payments to firms to keep employees on payroll is an effective way to speed the state's recovery from recession.

Those who agreed with the statement stressed the importance of federal funds to support such a program, saying that cuts to other state programs could end up undoing any of the benefit of such a program. Respondents also stressed the importance of targeting, transparency, and workplace safety in the payment scheme.

Of the nine economists who were uncertain or disagreed with the statement, reservations ranged from the importance of federal funding due to Ohio’s balanced budget amendment to the nature of the current recession compared to other recessions and inefficiencies wrought by discouraging “creative destruction.”

The Ohio Economic Experts Panel is a panel of over 40 Ohio Economists from over 30 Ohio higher educational institutions conducted by Scioto Analysis. The goal of the Ohio Economic Experts Panel is to promote better policy outcomes by providing policymakers, policy influencers, and the public with the informed opinions of Ohio’s leading economists.

If you would like to suggest a question for a future Ohio Economic Experts Panel, email your ideas to panel@sciotoanalysis.com.

Federal election results could mean new challenges under the dome

As the dust settles for election 2020, not much is going to change for the state of Ohio. It looks like Republicans are poised to pick up seats in the Ohio House and maybe even the Ohio Senate and of course the Governor’s office will stay in their hands with no election this year. Heck, even ousted Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder won reelection — while facing felony criminal conspiracy charges from the FBI!

Despite the stasis at the state level, the likely change in federal administration may present new issues for the state to address.

For one, a Biden administration may revive regulations such as the Obama-era “clean power plan” which require states to reduce carbon emissions from power plants over time. If this happens, state leaders will likely not be lucky enough to be bailed out by technological change to hit these benchmarks. 

This means they will have to create a plan to reduce carbon emissions through an old-fashioned renewable portfolio standard, requiring power companies to adopt clean technology, or through more market-oriented strategies such as carbon pricing or cap-and-trade. 

If Democrats win two special Senate elections in Georgia — an unlikely scenario at least at the moment — Congress may even get in on the fun with new requirements. A slim one-vote lead would probably not result in “Green New Deal” level regulations, but more modest regulations could be in the making under this scenario.

The more likely scenario of divided government with a Mitch McConnell-led Senate negotiating with Biden and Nancy Pelosi presents a different challenge for Ohio: fiscal stability. 

Economists don’t expect the national economy to recover to 2019 levels for over a year. This means state sales and income tax will continue to lag, which will threaten budgets for state education and health spending. McConnell has been very public with his opposition to aid for state and local government, so unless some moderates like Susan Collins are willing to break with their party to pass state aid, Ohio will have to dial back its spending for the next couple of years, which likely would mean public-sector layoffs.

If Democrats eke out a victory in the senate and pass aid to states, Ohio will face a different dilemma: spend money on state programs or dole it out directly for relief for businesses or families? There are philosophical, empirical, and political disagreements that could have such a pot of money pushed one way or the other.

A final policy area that has an outside chance of putting a new problem in front of state policymakers is health care. If Democrats picked off the last two seats in Georgia or were able to pull a Collins or a Murkowski into their camp for a popular program like a public option, they may kick it to the states to figure out what that would look like. In that case, Ohio could be in the position of designing policy to further reduce the rate of the uninsured.

So yes, the composition of Ohio’s government won’t change much in 2021. But election 2020 is likely to have an impact on the issues state policymakers will be facing nonetheless.

This commentary first appeared in the Ohio Capital Journal.

The state of the pandemic in Ohio and its neighboring states

As cold weather season sets in with a seeming inevitability of viral spread growing, the Midwest is bracing for its third wave of spread of COVID-19. The regional variation in this virus has been an interesting story over time, and at this particular moment, we have the opportunity to check in on states in our region and see how they’ve fared so far.

So how do Ohio and its neighbors stack up in October of 2020 in the midst of the worst pandemic in a century? Here’s a snapshot of the states using data from the COVID Tracking Project, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and of course the US Census Bureau.

Indiana: The Epicenter

Indiana is the state in the region that is most embracing the “herd immunity” approach to the virus. While the state boasted a region-low 6.4% unemployment rate in August, it has done so at the cost of public health, with a region-high 2,200 COVID cases per 100,000 people this year and 21 people in hospitals right now per 100,000 and a high death rate of 58 people per 100,000 residents. 

Kentucky: The Headscratcher

The Bluegrass State has had nearly as many cases per capita as Indiana and is exceeded in hospitalization per capita regionally only by Indiana, but has somehow been able to keep its death rate lower than any state regionally besides West Virginia. This may be because of Kentucky’s rural population or it may be because of precautions taken in nursing homes in the state. Either way, the state has kept the death rate low while keeping unemployment manageable at 7.6% in August, which means they are doing something right despite high community spread.

Michigan: The Tragedy

That state up north was the regional center of coronavirus spread and deaths in the first wave of the outbreak leading to the highest death rate in the region, with 73 of every 100,000 residents dying from COVID-19. Its economy also took the largest hit of any state in Q2 of 2020 and it has suffered high levels of unemployment for the region. On the bright side, total cases per capita have been a moderate 1,600 per 100,000 and current hospitalizations are only 10 per 100,000 residents, signaling Michigan might be turning the corner as a state during this pandemic.

Ohio: Stunningly Mediocre

As Ohio seems to always do, the state falls middle of the pack almost every way you slice it. Cases per capita, current hospitalizations per capita, deaths per capita, and Q2 GDP hit all fall in the middle of the pack regionally. The one significant sore spot for Ohio is its nearly 9% unemployment rate, which is on the higher end for the region.

Pennsylvania: The Lockdown

The Keystone State looks a lot like Michigan with very high death rates and middling case rates, but departs in two ways: one good and one bad. On the positive side, Pennsylvania has the lowest hospitalization rate right now in the region, with only 7 out of 100,000 residents hospitalized for COVID-19. On the negative side, Pennsylvania has the highest unemployment rate in the region, with its over 10% unemployment rate topping all other states in the region by almost a percentage point and a half. In this way, Pennsylvania looks like a foil to Indiana, with its low case counts and hospital load and its high unemployment rate. What it shares with Indiana, though, is its high death rate.

West Virginia: The Overachiever

West Virginia was the last state in the country to get a COVID case and still looks best in the region looking at its current resume. Its rural makeup has given it the lowest case and death rate in the region, its hospital utilization is only moderate, and its economy took the softest hit in Q2. The sore spot for West Virginia has been its unemployment rate, where it is only outpaced by Pennsylvania

These dynamics will likely change over the next few months. Will Indiana and Kentucky continue to slide? Will Michigan and Pennsylvania complete their turnaround? Will Ohio stay stubbornly mediocre and West Virginia consistently above average? We’ll have more answers in a few months, but we can only hope that this answer will come at minimal cost in lives during a virus’s favorite time of year.

This commentary first appeared in the Ohio Capital Journal.

Ohio Economists Split on Economic Benefits of Nuclear Power Subsidies from Ratepayers

In a survey published by Scioto Analysis this morning, a majority of respondents believed nuclear subsidies paid for by ratepayers represented a transfer from a large number of households to a small number of investors and workers, but more economists were uncertain or had no opinion about overall economic effects.

While economists surveyed tended to agree that this payment system was a transfer of income, some said that it could be justified depending on whether the payments covered the fixed cost of operation of a large utility. Those who disagreed or were uncertain emphasized both fixed cost concerns and nuclear power’s potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Responses to the question about overall economic impact seemed to emphasize environmental impact, with some economists saying that environmental benefits will outweigh economic costs of the subsidy, some saying they would not, and others saying the result was uncertain. The economic efficiency of the plants was also emphasized by respondents.

The Ohio Economic Experts Panel is a panel of over 40 Ohio Economists from over 30 Ohio higher educational institutions conducted by Scioto Analysis. The goal of the Ohio Economic Experts Panel is to promote better policy outcomes by providing policymakers, policy influencers, and the public with the informed opinions of Ohio’s leading economists.

If you would like to suggest a question for a future Ohio Economic Experts Panel, email your ideas to panel@sciotoanalysis.com.

Why aren’t Ohio’s city budgets collapsing under COVID-19?

In March of this year, the Brookings Institution had a blog post that pegged four Ohio cities — Columbus, Cincinnati, Toledo, and Cleveland — in the top five “cities with the most immediate fiscal impacts from COVID-19” in the entire country.

Yet this gloom and doom about Ohio fiscal prospects did not materialize. Columbus cut its budget by 4.1% last month to accommodate for decreased funds. Cincinnati actually ended its fiscal year with $20 million more than expected. The mayor of Toledo came out early on saying that initial cuts would be less than 4% of the operating budget passed in March. As of June, the city of Cleveland was down only $4.5 million of its $1.84 billion budget, about 0.2% of the total budget.

These hits will still hurt. These adjustments represent millions of dollars in lost revenue that will mean reduced city services for residents. But it’s worth noticing that a Brookings report from two weeks ago said that total national state and local revenues will decline by 5.5% in 2020, meaning all four Ohio cities Brookings pegged in March as having monumental budget holes in the near future are today beating the national average.

How did this happen? Well, during a “normal” recession, unemployment goes up and people pull from their savings to spend money. You have a (relatively) slow ramp-up in joblessness and people shift their spending around to accommodate job conditions. Because of this, property taxes generally stay pretty steady, sales taxes have a slight shock due to people tightening their belts as they lose money, and income taxes are hit heavily due to the shock in unemployment. It’s easier to keep spending on credit than it is to find new work when you lose your job, so sales stay steady compared to income.

Ohio is different than most states in the ability it gives its cities to raise income tax, and its cities have used this ability to become especially dependent on income tax. So in a regular recession, Ohio cities would be most threatened fiscally since their cash cow — income — is most in danger.

The 2020 recession, like everything else this year, was different. All at once, the state shut down large portions of the economy in the form of service, travel, retail, and hospitality. While this happened, the federal government stepped in and provided enough support to prop up household incomes in the form of unemployment payments and cash support. But households didn’t spend these dollars in stores because stores weren’t open. American saved a record one out of every three of their of dollars in April, meaning that income stayed afloat while sales fell.

So Ohio cities are doing better now than people expected them to, largely because of the unique character of this recession. In the next couple years, though, Ohio might not be so lucky. While 2022 total revenues are projected to be down 4.7% compared to 2020’s 5.5%, the income tax situation is expected to get worse, declining by 4.7% in 2020 and falling by 7.7% by 2022. Ohio’s best hope is that these projections are off, too, otherwise the cities of the state have a long two years ahead of them.

This commentary originally appeared in the Ohio Capital Journal.

Museums and zoos are in the fiscal crisis of the century and education is on the chopping block

By Sarah Dunifon and Rob Moore

Think of the last time you went to a natural history museum, science center, or zoo. Who did you talk to while you were there? Perhaps someone who explained an activity to you, answered questions about an exhibit, or described how zookeepers care for the animals? If so, you likely spoke with an informal educator - a staff member trained to communicate complex themes with guests. 

Informal educators are professionals who are experts at teaching, communication, and the content specific to their institution. They interact with all developmental levels and audience types, from school groups to family units to solo visitors. Often, they receive specific training in order to learn how to turn lofty content (like research studies) into accessible and engaging information and interactive experiences. 

At a time when it is critical for everyone to have basic science literacy, experts who can communicate about and raise interest in public engagement with science are of paramount importance. 

Informal education is all the learning that occurs outside of a classroom, in contexts like:

  • Nature centers and parks

  • Museums

  • Libraries

  • After school programs

  • Summer camps

  • Online

  • Citizen science

  • Wherever a nonprofit has an educational mission

Informal education experiences often complement formal learning. Programs often align with educational standards, contain pre- and post-program learning elements for teachers and parents/guardians to use with their students, and are sometimes even planned in coordination with K-12 teachers to ensure the content is exactly what is needed for a specific audience. 

Experts note that 95% of the learning one does in a lifetime takes place outside of a classroom. Informal learning is a crucial part of the educational process. Informal learning can have overarching impacts on participants by providing them with new ways of thinking and doing. Taking part in informal education can yield results like increased career awareness, skill building, content knowledge gains, self confidence increases, science identity building, and more. It allows students opportunities to belong, to build their skills, and to have meaningful involvement in the learning process, according to a 2015 report from the National Academies Press. Informal learning can also have a profound effect on one's development as a person, by building 21st Century Skills (like critical thinking, media literacy, and leadership), and social and emotional learning (like social awareness and decision making).

So, we know that informal learning can positively impact students' knowledge, skills, attitudes, values, and even behaviors. What does that mean for our students? 

Imagine students participating in a STEM-focused summer camp which highlights diverse STEM professionals as part of its programming. Would students who participated in this camp have a broader view of who could become a scientist or engineer? If they have a positive experience in the camp, might these students be more likely to choose to participate in STEM programs in the future? Could this experience even affect their future career aspirations? Research shows that informal learning experiences can have very real and very marked impacts on learners. 

While “critical thinking skills” may sound like a vague outcome, the ability to set goals and reason through how to achieve them is key for achieving long-term success. A 2017 study measured 224 adults and college students’ intelligence and critical thinking skills using separate assessments and surveyed all participants on life outcomes that ranged from racking up credit card debt to contracting a sexually transmitted infection. The study found that people who did better on the intelligence and critical thinking assessments also had better life outcomes, but that critical thinking skills were more predictive of better outcomes than intelligence. Thus, informal education programs can help build critical thinking skills, that means they can also help bolster people’s interpersonal, work, financial, health, educational outcomes down the road.

All these outcomes of informal STEM programs have economic ramifications. If critical thinking skills help people do their work better, that means more people in fulfilling jobs where they can create more valuable products and services for others. Better health outcomes means less spending on treatment, but also better lifestyles that people value on their own and would have paid for otherwise. Better educational attainment leads to higher earnings and attainment that people value on their own. Even improved interpersonal skills can lead to better productivity and maybe even improved home lives, both of which have economic value.

Okay, so maybe informal STEM programs improve lives, and maybe this improvement can be measured in outcomes that can be translated into dollars. But the pertinent question for a policymaker or other funder when evaluating a program is whether these benefits outweigh the costs of the program. Luckily, the evidence that programs that improve social and emotional learning have net economic benefits is strong. Classroom programs that improve social and emotional learning have been shown to have social benefits that substantially outweigh costs. Informal programs are usually much less costly than classroom programs, and the marginal value of spending on programs often decreases with more spending. This means that an informal program can theoretically have more “bang for its buck” than even a classroom program because people are being exposed to an entirely new idea rather than being fed the same idea over and over again. Also, people exposed to informal learning are usually doing it of their own volition, which may mean they are more likely to internalize the lessons of informal learning than those in a compulsory classroom setting. 

This isn’t to say that social and emotional learning in the classroom is a bad investment. The evidence we have available shows pretty strongly that it is a quite good investment. Rather, it means that if you buy the evidence on social and emotional learning in the classroom, and if you can find an informal STEM program that fosters social and emotional learning, you are likely to see net economic benefits as well.

Informal learning institutions know the power of their work and many institutions have had to shift their practice to allow for remote learning opportunities during COVID-19. But these remote opportunities are often top-down, meaning that adults hold the authority rather than letting youth learners explore content for themselves, and they are not equally available to all learners. Take, for example, the city of Cleveland where in 2018 27.4% of households did not have home broadband Internet subscriptions, 44.2% lacked cable, DSL, or fiber Internet subscriptions, and 14.1% had only a mobile phone data plan.  

Knowing the benefits that informal learning provides, nonprofit leaders and policy makers should consider informal learning opportunities and access, both during the current pandemic and in the future.

Decimated local governments can still create jobs

Ohio is experiencing the most unique unemployment event in its recorded history. In April, the state approached 18% unemployment, meaning that over one in six Ohio workers were looking for a job that month.

Since then, however, jobs have returned. While the peak of the COVID recession’s unemployment in the state was 60% higher than the Great Recession, unemployment returned to single digits by July, meaning that double-digit unemployment only persisted for three months in 2020 compared to the 15 months of unemployment Ohio endured in 2009 and 2010.

Despite the snapback the economy has experienced, scars will persist from 2020. Businesses have had to scrap plans and adjust to a “new normal” of higher rates of telecommuting and less use of public space. People will continue to eschew public gatherings and retail even as restrictions are lifted. 

Local communities’ ability to recover from a monumental event like this will depend on the decisions policymakers make in the next few months. As income and sales tax revenues dry up and as federal support seems to not be forthcoming, cities and counties in Ohio are going to be faced with tighter budgets and high unemployment. How can they deal with both?

Luckily, one of the leading economic development researchers in the country, Timothy Bartik, came forth with some guidance this summer for policymakers who want to create jobs at the local level that could be critical at this moment. Below are some of the options he lays out for policymakers, ordered from cheapest to most expensive. 

Brownfield redevelopment

According to a 2013 study, 85% of vacant or abandoned land in the United States has some sort of real or perceived environmental contamination from former use. Bartik estimates that cleaning these properties for job-creating projects can create a job for a mere $1,300 per job, a small investment for a new job and a more vibrant community.

Manufacturing technical assistance

One of the most effective ways to grow a local economy is to create export-oriented manufacturing jobs. Many small- and medium-sized manufacturers, though, don’t have the technical know-how to maximize their potential for sales and productivity. Bartik estimates that low-cost, high-quality manufacturing advice for these businesses can create local jobs at the cost of $3,300 per job.

Job training

Small and medium businesses are also often searching for the talent they need to grow their businesses. Customized job training run by local community colleges can be a final bridge for connecting people who need work and employers who need talent. Bartik estimates that a job can be created through a customized job training program for only $3,700.

Infrastructure

Businesses locate where there are resources. Local governments can be a powerful tool for making the conditions for job creation better by building roads, providing public transportation, installing utility lines, and otherwise giving businesses the resources they need to grow, thrive, and hire. Bartik estimates that $4,100 in targeted infrastructure investment can create a job.

Business incentives

A tool often used by economic development professionals to keep or attract businesses are cash incentives in the form of tax exemptions. While these can create jobs, they do so at a much more costly rate than the other four options, coming in at a cost of $20,500 per job created.

While coffers are being drained, local government in Ohio still has options to fight unemployment. It may mean redirecting of dollars to more cost-effective options, but with smart decision making, policymakers can ease their local communities out of this historic event faster than they would otherwise.

This commentary first appeared in the Ohio Capital Journal.

Ohio Economists Skeptical of Laws Shielding Firms from COVID-19 Claims

In a survey published by Scioto Analysis this morning, only 8 out of 36 Ohio economists believed laws shielding firms from liability relating to injury and death resulting from COVID-19 will speed Ohio’s economic recovery.

Economists who disagreed that such laws would speed economic recovery in particular emphasized long-term economic impacts, worried that such laws may prolong the pandemic and hurt the economy in the long-term. Multiple economists expressing uncertainty about the economic impacts of such laws said the “devil is in the details,” emphasizing tradeoffs between recklessness caused by too little responsibility and the opposite dangers of exercising too much caution.

Economists were also worried that such laws may increase infection rates, with 22 of 36 economists agreeing that liability laws will incentivize actions by firms that will increase the spread of COVID-19. Economists worried about these sorts of laws emphasized the negative external costs of economic activity on infection rates. Economists who were more conflicted on this question emphasized that firms have incentives in the form of reputation and workforce health to take actions to reduce spread even without liability laws.

The Ohio Economic Experts Panel is a panel of over 40 Ohio Economists from over 30 Ohio higher educational institutions conducted by Scioto Analysis. The goal of the Ohio Economic Experts Panel is to promote better policy outcomes by providing policymakers, policy influencers, and the public with the informed opinions of Ohio’s leading economists.

If you would like to suggest a question for a future Ohio Economic Experts Panel, email your ideas to panel@sciotoanalysis.com.

Ohio universities tiptoe back into the classroom

With school back in session, Ohio’s eyes are on the state’s 3,600 schools, but also its nearly 100 public and private universities. As universities have scrambled to put together new policies and procedures in place to somehow reconvene an institution that is, in essence, a nine-month string of consecutive mass gatherings, data transparency has become a big piece of the puzzle to both ensuring student safety and convincing the public of the work they are doing.

Ohio State University’s “Safe and Healthy Buckeyes” tracker is a good case study for how transparency is being carried out and gives us some insight into how COVID-19 is spreading at Ohio’s largest university. As of Sept. 4, 5.8% of student tests were coming back positive in the past week. 

Is this positivity rate good? Well, it depends on who you ask. The key performance indicator targets have shifted significantly over the course of this pandemic, with case and hospitalization rates taking center stage early on, a variety of indicators culminating in a county-by-county color code after state restrictions were lifted, and most recently driven by a focus on positivity rates among tests taken. 

The turn to positivity rates kicked off in May when the World Health Organization recommended countries should remain at 5% or lower positivity rate for two weeks before “reopening” their economies. In an interview with “Face the Nation,” however, United States Surgeon General Jerome Adams said that positivity rates of 10% or lower — twice the World Health Organization guidelines — should be what parents should look for in their community as schools reopen.

When it comes to positivity rates, Ohio has fared better than the country as a whole. The United States briefly dipped below 5% positivity rate in June but spiked up to 8.5% positivity in July and has yet to get below 5% positivity since then despite steady progress throughout August. Ohio, on the other hand, has generally been able to keep its positivity rate under 5% since July, reaching a low of 3.1% earlier this month.

What does all this mean for the situation on Ohio campuses? Well, 5.8% positivity rate is not something to necessarily be happy about. Ohio State’s total student positivity rate since August 14th is 3.7%, which is much better than 5.8% and good by anyone’s standards, but the more recent 5.8% rate suggests cases are on the rise among students. 

While it’s easy to dwell on the negatives of school reopenings, it’s important to also ask ourselves what we get from school reopenings. In June, I wrote about the lingering human capital impacts that students will feel from COVID-19 school closures. If current research on the impacts of schooling on child development is correct, however, then older students stand to lose much less than younger students from lost days of schooling, even assuming virtual learning is the same substitute across different age ranges, which it likely is not.

Overall, if viral spread can be controlled, higher education is a valuable investment for the people involved. That being said, higher education institutions have more infrastructure and tools than K-12 institutions to facilitate socially distant learning and less ability to hurt student outcomes down the road. Smart institutions will put this to good use and balance limiting community spread with continued human capital development for students.

This commentary first appeared in the Ohio Capital Journal.

Official unemployment rate doesn’t capture enormity of COVID-19 labor force fallout

We know COVID-19 has hurt workers, especially service industry workers, hard. A recent poll of Ohio economists conducted by my firm found 38 of 40 economists think the economic fallout of COVID-19 will fall disproportionately on low- and middle-income families, with economists citing the labor market structure as the major culprit of this inequitable outcome.

This has been an unprecedented year for Ohio’s labor market. The state unemployment rate tripled in April, jumping from 5.4% in March to a whopping 17.3%, the highest since the Bureau of Labor Statistics started recording unemployment rates in the mid 1970s. In April, almost 1 million Ohioans claimed unemployment, also a record for the state.

The unemployment rate isn’t the whole story for Ohio’s labor force, though. As anyone who has spent some time learning about unemployment measurement knows, the official unemployment rate only tracks the number of people actively seeking work as a proportion of the labor force. This means that people who want to work but have stopped looking for it (discouraged and marginally attached workers) and people who technically have jobs but would like to work more hours (involuntary part-time workers) are not included in the official unemployment measure.

Newer economic measures such as the Genuine Progress Indicator tend to use more comprehensive measures of underemployment to capture the range of impacts underemployment have on the economy. The measurement of choice is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’s “U-6” measure, which includes marginally attached workers and involuntary part-time workers alongside unemployed workers in its measure.

The problem with the U-6 measure is that it is not reported as often as the U-3, the official unemployment measure. While the official unemployment measure is reported on a monthly basis, the comprehensive U-6 measure is only reported on an annual basis, meaning we have incomplete information on what the COVID-19 crisis has done to marginally attached workers and involuntary part-time workers.

Fortunately, the Bureau of Labor Statistics published new annual U-6 numbers last month, covering the 12 months from July 2019 to June 2020. Over this time period, the official unemployment rate was 6.8%, but the comprehensive U-6 unemployment rate was 11.1%, implying that for every three unemployed Ohioans, there were two Ohioans who had given up looking for work even though they wanted to work or who were working part-time who wanted to work full-time.

If that same ratio of marginal/involuntary part-time workers to traditional unemployed held steady in April of 2020, 1.6 million Ohio workers would have been unemployed, marginally attached, or involuntarily part-time that month, leading to a U-6 unemployment rate that would top 28%.

There are reasons to think this number could be lower. Maybe the swift layoffs of March and April 2020 gave little time for workers to become discouraged or employers favored straight-up layoffs over hour cutbacks. On the other hand, maybe programs like Paycheck Protection caused employers to retain workers at lower wages and maybe the quick crush of COVID-19 discouraged workers immediately, meaning the U6 could have been even higher than that. 

Either way, a record of nearly a million Ohioans filed for unemployment in April, but hundreds of thousands more were directly affected by this historic economic event.

This commentary first appeared in the Ohio Capital Journal.