In a survey released this morning by Scioto Analysis, 16 of 21 economists agreed that lower levels of international immigration will lead to higher prices for services in Ohio
Net immigration to the United States is on the decline. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, net immigration into the United States dropped from 2.7 million in 2024 to 1.3 million in 2025. If current trends continue, net immigration into the United States is expected to fall to just 300,000 in 2026. Ohio’s population is already set to decline in the next few decades, and reduced international immigration to the country could exacerbate these trends.
Most respondents indicated that higher service prices is a clear consequence of lower levels of international immigration. Jonathan Andreas of Bluffton University noted, “This is one of the clearest costs of restricting immigration.” Not all economists shared this sentiment, however, with some respondents citing multiple factors at play. Will Georgic of Ohio Wesleyan University expressed, “There are two competing forces that could cause prices for services to change in response to lower levels of international immigration to Ohio. The demand effect would suggest that prices could come down due to a decrease in consumption. On the other hand, a decrease in the supply of labor, especially in key industries, could lead to higher wages for some jobs which could lead to local wage-price spirals and higher prices.”
All 21 economists agreed that fewer international immigrants in Ohio will lead to a net loss in tax revenue. According to Kathryn Wilson of Kent State University, “The research is clear that immigrants pay significantly more in taxes than they receive in benefits (in part because they are not eligible for many benefits). Therefore, fewer international immigrants in Ohio will lead to a net loss in tax revenue.”
20 of 21 economists agreed that a reduction in international immigration will result in fewer small businesses being started in Ohio. Bill LaFayette of Regionomics explained, “Studies have found that immigrants are more likely to start and own businesses than their domestic counterparts. This may be because immigrants who uproot their lives and move to a different country are inherently more risk-tolerant. They may also be leveraging their unique insights into the needs of their community.”
The Ohio Economic Experts Panel is a panel of over 30 Ohio Economists from over 30 Ohio higher educational institutions conducted by Scioto Analysis. The goal of the Ohio Economic Experts Panel is to promote better policy outcomes by providing policymakers, policy influencers, and the public with the informed opinions of Ohio’s leading economists. Individual responses to all surveys can be found here.