Earlier this week, I wrote about three economic stories to keep an eye out for in 2026. One of these was changes that were coming to Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, formerly known as “food stamps”) benefits as a result of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Today, I wanted to dive a bit deeper into this topic since it could end up being one of the most significant changes to our social safety net in a generation.
Throughout the history of the program, SNAP has been funded almost exclusively by the federal government. Aside from administrative costs, states have previously just been able to receive money and disburse it to people who claim benefits. In Ohio, that’s about 1.4 million people receiving over $3 billion in benefits each year. None of that $3 billion came out of Ohio’s state budget, though the administration of the program did cost Ohio about $150 million.
The Georgetown Center on Poverty and Inequality estimates that Ohio is going to be on the hook for about $540 million after this change, an increase of 268%. For context, Ohio expects to bring in about $28.7 billion in tax revenue during FY 2025, and that is projected to increase to $29.7 billion in FY 2026.
That means that this change in SNAP benefits is roughly equivalent to 2% of all of Ohio’s tax revenue, and of the projected $1 billion increase from FY 2025 to FY 2026 over half would have to be spent on covering this new bill rather than increasing funding across social services like education and Medicaid.
States can't afford to spend over half of their annual budget increases on an individual program, that money is already being accounted for elsewhere. If states are going to cover these increased expenditures, they will either need to dramatically cut spending elsewhere or make significant increases to their tax revenues.
Even if states were able to raise this amount of money easily, it would still be difficult to maintain a balanced budget because SNAP is an entitlement program. That means anyone who is eligible for benefits gets to receive them, which leads to unpredictable expenditures year-to-year.
The alternative to entitlement programs are block grants, but the last time a major entitlement program got block granted it meant that the number of people receiving benefits and the benefit amounts cratered.
States are looking at a lose-lose scenario. Either they need to significantly raise taxes and remain flexible to unpredictable changes in benefit claims, or they need to slash the third largest anti-poverty program in the country, behind only Social Security and the Earned Income Tax Credit.
In 2026, we will see what the future of the SNAP program will be across the country. Unless there is some sort of unforeseen policy change, we are likely to see many states drop the SNAP program, which will likely lead to increases in poverty rates across the country. Without the support provided by the SNAP program, many families are going to find their budgets stretched at a time when they are still reeling from the elevated inflation rate of the past five years.