This morning, Scioto Analysis released a cost-benefit analysis on an economic mobility program to help low-income families move to neighborhoods with more economic opportunity. The program is modeled after Moving to Opportunity, a 1994 experiment by the Department of Housing and Urban Development, and Families Flourish, a non-profit organization based in Columbus, Ohio. Based on evaluations of these programs, analysts estimate that a program expanded to 1,000 families would create $320 million in value through reduced crime, increased lifelong earnings, reduced welfare spending, and other impacts.
Studies have shown that neighborhoods with lower rates of poverty produce better outcomes in health, economic standing, and education for children who live in them. The original Moving to Opportunity program enrolled 4,600 low-income families and moved roughly half of them to lower-poverty neighborhoods through subsidized housing vouchers. Children who moved before the age of 13 experienced the greatest benefit from the program. Through our analysis, analysts estimate that a Moving to Opportunity-styled program for 1,000 families in Ohio would result in:
$140 million in increased lifelong earnings
$9.5 million in reduced crime
$450,000 in reduced welfare spending
Per family, the program is expected to cost $40,000 per child in discounted present dollars. Analysts conducted a Monte Carlo analysis with 10,000 simulations of the program. From this, they estimate the program will generate $5 to $7 in benefits for every $1 in costs. Net social benefits are expected between $250,000 and $310,000 per child. Analysts expect this program to be largely beneficial for low-income Ohioans, providing long-term benefits in income, crime, and health.