In a survey released this morning by Scioto Analysis, 10 of 14 economists agreed that reduced trust in Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates will hurt economic development in Ohio. This comes after the firing of Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and subsequent appointment of E.J. Antoni from the Bureau of Labor Statistics has raised concern about the independence and reliability of Federal employment statistics.
As Curtis Reynolds from Kent State wrote “One of the hidden backbones of the US economy is the quality of economic data. That provides investors - both in the US and from other countries - with reliable data for making decisions. A belief that the quality of the data has decreased or is now being manipulated/manufactured for political gain will undermine confidence in the entire US economy.”
One economist who disagreed was David Brasington from the University of Cincinnati, citing challenges the Bureau of Labor Statistics has had recently in their survey response rates “I disagree with the premise. If the new director makes the BLS use more updated models, trust in the numbers could increase. Current BLS surveys have 45% completion rate compared to 95% in the past.”
Additionally, 10 of 14 economists agreed that reduced trust in Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates will increase the importance of state-level economic data. This does come with additional challenges of state’s having potentially differing methods, as Kathryn Wilson notes “Yes, but relying more on state-level data is a costly and an uneven substitute. If states vary in their ability or willingness to invest in high-quality data collection, the result will be inconsistent and less useful than national statistics. The costs of duplicating efforts at the state level would be significant, and there’s the added risk that state-level data could become further politicized along partisan lines.”
The Ohio Economic Experts Panel is a panel of over 30 Ohio Economists from over 30 Ohio higher educational institutions conducted by Scioto Analysis. The goal of the Ohio Economic Experts Panel is to promote better policy outcomes by providing policymakers, policy influencers, and the public with the informed opinions of Ohio’s leading economists. Individual responses to all surveys can be found here.