In a survey released this morning by Scioto Analysis, 20 of 23 economists agreed that employment opportunities are a major driver of Ohio's current population growth trend.
The population growth rate in Ohio is currently declining. According to the Ohio Department of Development, the state is expected to lose more than 675,000 people by 2050. By 2030 alone, Ohio is expected to drop from the seventh most populous state to the ninth.
Respondents voiced opinions that employment opportunities affect net migration into Ohio and out of the state. As Kathryn Wilson of Kent State University noted, “Employment opportunities are a contributor on both sides of the ledger. Areas around Columbus that are seeing growth in population are also seeing job growth. Other areas of the state with less job growth are seeing a net migration out of people.”
A majority of economists agreed that state-level decisions on social policy issues are a major contributor to Ohio’s current population growth trend, with 14 of 23 economists agreeing. According to Will Georgic of Ohio Wesleyan University, “If you think of social policy issues as non-market amenities, and if you think that recent state-level decisions have worsened the quality of these non-market amenities, then following a Rosen-Roback type model could support the belief that these decisions are contributing to the State's current population trend.” David Brasington of the University of Cincinnati disagreed with this opinion about social policy issues, suggesting that “Not many people pick a place to live based on social policy. Jobs, climate, geography, quality of life all matter more.”
Opinions on if cost of living is a major contributor to Ohio's current population growth trend were more mixed across economists. Eight economists agreed that cost of living is a major contributor to Ohio’s current population growth trend, eleven economists disagreed, and three economists were uncertain. Multiple economists agree that the relationship between cost of living and Ohio’s current population growth trend may run the other direction. Curtis Reynolds of Kent State University writes, “Cost of living is quite low in most parts of Ohio compared to many other areas of the country but that is partly driven by lack of pressure on the demand side due to declining population.”
The Ohio Economic Experts Panel is a panel of over 30 Ohio Economists from over 30 Ohio higher educational institutions conducted by Scioto Analysis. The goal of the Ohio Economic Experts Panel is to promote better policy outcomes by providing policymakers, policy influencers, and the public with the informed opinions of Ohio’s leading economists. Individual responses to all surveys can be found here.